The final MotoGP round of the 2022 season is being billed by series promoter as "The Decider". The reason for the billing is simple: Pecco Bagnaia arrives at Valencia with a very comfortable lead over Fabio Quartararo, but the title is still up for grabs.
In theory, at least. Bagnaia leads Quartararo by 23 points, and has 7 wins to Quartararo's 3. In effect, this means that Bagnaia needs to finish 14th or better to be certain of the title. But even more reassuring for the Ducati Lenovo rider, Quartararo has to win the race to even have a chance of successfully defending his 2021 title.
What are the chances of both of those events happening? Let's examine each event separately. First, the chance of Pecco Bagnaia finishing 15th or worse at Valencia. His first couple of seasons in MotoGP did not go particularly well for the Italian. Ruled out of the race in 2019 after knocking himself out and fracturing a wrist in 2019, crashing in the first Valencia race in 2020, then ending in 11th in the second race there a week later.