MotoMatters.com | Kropotkin Thinks

When I went for my motorcycle license nearly four decades ago in The Netherlands, I turned up for the test in the middle of January, in the pouring rain, and with a hangover after staying out the previous night. As I rode out of the test center to start the practical part of the test, feeling the odds stacked against me, I accepted I would fail and relaxed, riding around thinking I would try again a few months later. I passed first time.

The test for my car license in the UK, nearly a decade later, was much the same story. As I was about to drive off to start the test, the examiner asked me if I had perhaps forgotten something, pointing at the seatbelt I had not fastened. Failed at the first hurdle, I thought, and was surprised when I passed that as well.

What does a quaint tale of driving tests back in the Pleistocene era have to do with MotoGP? Quite a lot, as it turns out. I passed the tests because I had no nerves, having believed that all was already lost. I relaxed, focused on just riding or driving round, and forgot about the stakes.

Abandon hope, and prosper

That is exactly what appears to have happened at the 2022 MotoGP season finale at Valencia. Going into the final race of the year, pretty much everyone had written Fabio Quartararo off. Trailing Pecco Bagnaia by 23 points, he came to Valencia knowing all he could do was try to win the race, and hope for an error by Bagnaia. With Bagnaia averaging nearly 20 points a race over the past 9 races, and having made just one mistake, that looked like a vain hope.

I had written Quartararo's chances off as well, comparing this race to Andrea Dovizioso's attempt to win a world championship for Ducati in 2017, where Dovizioso could never get close to Marc Marquez and ended up crashing out.

But I was wrong. This is much more like Valencia 2006, where Nicky Hayden arrived at the last race trailing Valentino Rossi by 8 points. On the back of Hayden's leathers, he had a drawing of a stack of poker chips, with the words "All in" superimposed over them.

All in

"All in" is the phrase Fabio Quartararo has been using all weekend as well. "Why would I be nervous?" the Frenchman said on Friday. "I have said to all; my team, my friends, that in this race I go 'all in'. Whatever happens we will party Sunday night. Of course I am not leaving here without trying."

That attitude showed on Saturday. Quartararo's race pace in FP4 was phenomenal, better than anyone else. He came up just short of the front row in qualifying, finishing up with fourth spot on the grid. Not the front row start he wanted, but pretty close.

It was not for want of trying: Quartararo took fourth with a few seconds to spare as he crossed the line, and enough time to have one more shot. He knew he had to do better if he could, but found out that fourth was the limit when he crashed at Turn 2. "On time attack, we know that we always struggle, but today I decided to go all in. It's two tenths again to the pole, but we are P4 and I'm pretty happy about my position."

Quartararo has managed to exceed his own expectations, merely by giving up any pretense at calculation. He can do only one thing: try to win the race, and let the rest of the cards fall where they may.

You can't trust in miracles

When asked if a strong practice had reawakened belief in a miracle on Sunday, Quartararo was blunt. "I'm not thinking about that, I'm thinking about the win," the Monster Energy Yamaha rider said. "If I win the race, maybe something will happen. But my main objective for tomorrow will be to fight for the victory, that is the only thing that I can do by myself."

He would not have any information on his pit board about where Pecco Bagnaia was. That was not something he had any control over. The only thing that mattered was Quartararo's own position, and either his lead or his gap to the front. "This is the most important thing. It's been since Germany that we last fought for any victory, so it will be super important for me to fight until the last lap."

Quartararo wasn't even heartened by the clear nervousness over in the Ducati garage. "To be honest, I don't care," the Frenchman said. "And it's funny, because on the TV it looks like we are racing only him and me, you always see us on TV. But at the end, I need to focus on myself, like I said. It's not that we have only a 5 point difference and we are fighting really closely. We have a massive difference. What matters for me is to win, then what he does is not my problem. So I'm focused only on myself."

Starting from fourth meant taking a lot of risk in the first couple of corners, to try to get ahead of the Ducatis of Jorge Martin and Jack Miller, and the Repsol Honda of Marc Marquez. "You know, during the season, you will never make a – I don't know if silly is the correct word – but strange overtake, to take that amount of risk to make an overtake," Quartararo said. "But tomorrow is the day that I can do whatever I want. I will need to do it, and it's not a great position to be 23 points behind, but in that situation it is the only positive I can find."

Bag of nerves

Where Quartararo is entering the race on Sunday with nothing to lose, Pecco Bagnaia is suffering through a weekend of nerves and worry. The Ducati garage is a veritable powder keg of emotion, with everyone bar Bagnaia's crew chief Cristian Gabarrini visibly on the edge of collapse.

Bagnaia is trying to maintain his cool, but he is suffering, he admitted. That explained why he has been slow for most practice sessions, was lucky to get straight through to Q2, and qualified eighth on the grid. He spent most of Q2 coasting around trying to pick the right moment to push, rather than getting his head down and trying to qualify higher up the grid.

For that reason, Bagnaia was looking forward to the race, and being able to forget about everything else. "Sincerely, I think that the only session without this kind of feeling will be the race, because I will just focus on the race," the factory Ducati rider said. He was hoping for a repeat of Sepang. "So I think like in Malaysia, the race was the only, not the easiest, but the session I was just fully concentrated on doing what I was doing. So maybe tomorrow the race will be better than the sessions."

He did not have a strategy for the race, Bagnaia explained, but just hoped to stay calm and focus on staying as far forward in the field as he could. "My thing tomorrow is not to win, my thing tomorrow is just to be calm, to understand," the Italian said. "For sure I will take some risk at the start to be away from trouble. But then will be a matter of being smart. Maybe the first two, three laps I have to take some risk to have a bit of gap compared to the riders behind, to manage a bit better."

That's why they line up

Can Fabio Quartararo win the race from fourth on the grid, and snatch the title from Pecco Bagnaia's grasp? Luca Marini, fellow Ducati rider and member of the VR46 Academy, believes not. "It's much more easy for the pace of Pecco to win the championship, but he just has to stay on until the end."

Quartararo faced an almost insurmountable challenge, Marini said. "For Fabio it is impossible for him to win the race tomorrow. Not because he doesn’t have the pace, because he has beautiful, amazing pace but, as in every event of this year if you look at his Sunday pace it is impressive but then in race conditions he is slower because he’s with other riders. He struggles a little bit when someone overtakes him or someone is in front of him because it looks like he cannot do his lines, watching from the TV. I think tomorrow it will be impossible for him."

How do the three riders who Quartararo has to beat view his chances? All three were determined to win the race themselves of course, but were more optimistic about the Frenchman than Luca Marini had been. "If I’m in the position of Fabio, on Thursday I would see everything dark. Now it’s more clear, more shiny, because you never know," Marc Marquez explained.

A sliver of hope

Quartararo had been strong from the start of the weekend, but the Ducatis had slowly been catching him up. "He started FP1 in a good way, full attack," Marquez said. "Then he arrived at the limit of the bike. Then the others start to arrive, step by step. When the Ducati riders arrive, they have something more. It’s true that if I’m in Fabio’s position, I will say maybe. Very difficult, but maybe. If Pecco start in the first row, then it’s completely done. But now he can have some options."

Even Bagnaia's Ducati Lenovo teammate Jack Miller could see a pathway to victory for Quartararo. "Like they said, at the end of the day, it’s not over until the fat lady sings. Anything can happen. History has shown us that here in Valencia," Miller pointed out. What Bagnaia had to do was clear. "Pecco can’t take his foot off the gas. He needs to do a good job, but I trust in him that he will do a good job tomorrow."

Pick a winner

The biggest obstacle in Quartararo's path to the championship is first managing to seal victory in the race. Opinions were divided on who the favorites were. Luca Marini believed the two Ducatis on the front row would probably win. "I think Jack is very fast and very strong at this track," the Mooney VR46 rider said. "In past years he was always there fighting for the victory but also Martin made a good step today. We will see. This is also a race where tire management is important. We will see if there is a big group. For sure the guys that start in front and close the first laps in the first positions are the guys for the win."

That looks to be the pattern of the race. For the first 20 laps, there could be a close group, with those with the most tire left pulling away at the end. "It will be a race where of course we will need to be aggressive," Fabio Quartararo said. "But we need to be intelligent, because the tires are constant, but during the past, you see the first 20 laps is good but then the last 7 laps, it drops quite fast. But I'm feeling confident, tire consumption is better than expected, but of course I will have to go very aggressive from the beginning."

Pecco Bagnaia believed that Quartararo was capable of winning the race, but the field was so tight it was hard to point to a favorite. "I don't know sincerely!" he replied when asked to name a winner. "Jorge Martin was very competitive. Miguel Oliveira was so competitive, he's starting a bit behind, but was so competitive. Márquez is so competitive. Quartararo is so competitive. So I just try myself to not be outside of the top 14, but I think it will be a good race to watch tomorrow."

Off the line

The start and the first couple of laps will be crucial. "Depends a lot on the start, for sure," Jorge Martin said. "I hope to start well. We all know Fabio will be aggressive, but I hope he doesn’t crash into another rider. This is the only thing I can ask for because we all will be aggressive. So, it will be the same for everybody."

Marc Marquez had some sympathy for the idea of Quartararo crashing into another rider in the first couple of corners. "I know that Fabio tomorrow will push a lot," the Repsol Honda rider said. "He must push. If he crashes and hits another rider, if he hits me, I will understand. I don’t want it, but I will understand because he’s playing for the world championship, not for the race. So, I know that he’s smart, but he must do his correct work. He will attack."

Quartararo told us that he was ready to give as good as he gets if other riders get involved in a battle with him, and he would not blame them for doing so. "No problem," the Frenchman said. "We are all racing each other, and of course I can respond. But it's quite normal, we are all racing."

Quartararo made the comparison to Jake Dixon at Sepang, who got involved in a huge battle with Augusto Fernandez, despite the fact that Dixon himself was out of the title chase, and Fernandez was trying to chase and close down then championship leader Ai Ogura. "Of course if it's really dirty and it's not part of the championship, it's not really fair. But I mean, Jake in Malaysia, OK it was close, but not silly silly overtakes."

Moto2 madness

Speaking of which, that is the other title which will de decided at Valencia on Sunday. While Alonso Lopez qualified on pole with the Speed Up, and Pedro Acosta looks like the fastest man of the weekend, Augusto Fernandez qualified in third, Ai Ogura a row behind in fifth. The Moto2 championship battle is much closer, the difference only 9.5 points.

Ogura has made strong progress at a track he doesn't like, while Fernandez has looked completely in control of the situation. Whether that will last until the end of the race is another question, but Fernandez has some margin for error. Even then, it is not a margin he wants to explore.

So the season is nearly over. In a few hours time, we will know the names of the Moto2 and MotoGP champions. The title race between the two protagonists in both championships is more tense than expected, and with a full crowd and bright sunshine, MotoGP will get the finale it deserves.

We truly enter Sunday with an open championship, despite the odds being stacked in the favor of the championship leaders. As the late, great Nicky Hayden used to say, "that's why we line up on Sunday. You never know what's going to happen."

If you enjoyed this article, please consider supporting MotoMatters.com. You can help by either taking out a subscription, supporting us on Patreon, by making a donation, or contributing via our GoFundMe page. You can find out more about subscribing to MotoMatters.com here.