Going into the final MotoGP race of the year at Valencia, we were all expecting Ducati to dominate. After all, they had utterly dominated the 2022 season. Ducati had won 12 of the 19 races so far (7 by Pecco Bagnaia), had at least one rider on the podium for 25 consecutive races, taken 15 pole positions, and had at least one rider on the front row for 39 races. In 2021, Ducati had locked out both the front row of the grid, and the podium at at Valencia.
After qualifying, Ducati had increased their pole tally to 16 in 2022 and extended their streak of consecutive front row starts to 40. Jorge Martin started from pole, and Jack Miller qualified third. But that something had changed was clear from the rest of the grid. Marc Marquez was second on the Repsol Honda – a fit Marquez can use his genius to pull a fast lap out of the bag, but the Honda is in no shape to sustain that over race distance – while the second row consisted of Fabio Quartararo on the Yamaha, Alex Rins on the Suzuki, and Maverick Viñales on the Aprilia. Valencia was not looking like being a Ducati whitewash (redwash?) again.
What changed between last year and this year? The answer is simply the weather. It is a recurring problem for Michelin: they are tasked with selecting the tire allocation for all 20 races in February, before the season even starts. That requires them to try to anticipate what the weather conditions are going to be like in 8 or 9 months time.
Long-range forecasting
To get an idea of the scale of that task, imagine you had to choose in February the clothes you are going to be wearing at each of the 20 races throughout the year, packed them into a separate bags, and then opened them on arrival. You could arrive at Valencia in November and worry that the sweater you brought is too thick for the surprisingly warm weather. Or you could regret not packing something warmer, as you shiver in the freezing temperatures of the early morning. Rinse and repeat that for all 20 races.
The issue at Valencia was that it was surprisingly warm. Air temperatures on Sunday reached 27°C, where a year previously they struggled to reach 20°C. Track temperatures were 10°C or more higher than last year. The temperatures this year were at the very upper end of what Michelin had covered.
That placed a lot of load on the tires, especially the front. Valencia is highly asymmetric, and a place where the bikes spend an awful long time on the side of the tire. It's also a place where you are doing a lot of braking while leaned over. Turn 2 to Turn 3, Turn 6, 7, 8, and Turn 14 on the left side of the tire, Turn 5, 10, 11 on the right side. The left side of the front, especially, took a hammering.
That's why the race ended up being so slow. Alex Rins' winning race time was nearly 6.8 seconds slower than Pecco Bagnaia's winning time in 2021, and would have seen him finish sixth last year. It was a second and a half slower than Suzuki teammate Joan Mir's time in last year's race, which took him to fourth.
The issues with the front tire left Fabio Quartararo unable to match the pace of the leaders. "It was just a problem of basically the tire compound was too soft," the Monster Energy Yamaha rider said. "And luckily, this year, we had at least one step harder on the left. But they are bringing tires way too soft to this track, and also I think because every year it's hotter and hotter at this track, today it's like 26° or 27°, so that's why also we are a little bit too soft, and we are already using super hard tires."
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Comments
Magnificant David! and second for idea from earlier thread
just starting my 7th year as a supporter and your series here at the end of the season, wrapping up so many story lines of a great season, is an excellent example of why. thank you for your passion!
and just a small note re: Honda -- they could do much worse than hire as many of Suzuki's GSX-RR resources as are available -- as was posted on earlier thread by [?? sorry can't find it]. Honda started season with a highly-touted "we changed everything but the bike model [RC213V]" and in the end ran into the basic engineering paradigm of getting lost when you change everything at once. Having a proven success that is completely diff from your bike, that Suzuki has no future claims for.. I see a major resource that Honda has the budget to outbid everyone else for..
at more than one level I am just wanting to see this amazing 'lil bike that could' story somehow continue..
Thank you David
I have really enjoyed your reports this year and look forward to eveything starting up again in 2023. Any articles in the intervening period will be greatly appreciated. I hope you enjoy your well-earned change of pace.
Best Wishes, Brendan.
A small infantile riposte on
A small infantile riposte on behalf of Suzuki. 'They' would have done even better work with the bike upright more often. They say that a poor workman blames his tools. However, apparently the workman helped create the tool and it is a great tool. I'm not sure where that leaves the workman when the job is still below par. Brad Binder did a hell of a job this year, regardless of what he had to work with.
In reply to A small infantile riposte on by WaveyD1974
Perhaps the tool needed honing?
As did the Duke, to create the rounded, all circuits bike the Duke became. The similarity with Suzuki ends there.
In reply to Perhaps the tool needed honing? by Cloverleaf
It was just the, 'I think I
It was just the, 'I think I did a good job for Suzuki, like getting a competitive bike, a winning bike.' Two wins at the end of the season and outscoring everybody in the last four races is a nice way to finish a very normal season for Rins. Two wins, two other podiums and most of the time hovering somewhere in the second half of the top ten. He did have less DNF than 2021 though so that's a positive. Rins, inconsistent. Amazing some days, less so on others, asleep sometimes and on his ass often enough. Now that could be the bike but Rins has apparently been an integral part in producing a competitive bike. Shame he did so little with it. I'm being very unfair and harsh but his performance over the last few races looks very much like all the other flashes in the pan. Normal service to resume in a few months. I always think bike/rider, not bike and rider so I think it's impossible to say whether or not another rider would have done any better but....a few names do spring to mind.
In reply to It was just the, 'I think I by WaveyD1974
Fair enough. It’s bike and rider for me
And team. And strategy, And factory. And technological advance. And Board. And rules. And context, funding, politics etc etc. Unsurprising, as we see things through such a different lens, that we can reach such different conclusions. Which we often do. It was forever thus. Valid approaches. Each to their own. Different strokes etc etc. Must say, tho’, I’m pleased and reassured on the rare occasions when our different paths lead us to the same conclusion. Maybe next time.
In reply to Fair enough. It’s bike and rider for me by Cloverleaf
Exactly, not different
Exactly, not different conclusions, same. Maybe the phrasing was wrong. I don't think it is possible to separate bike, rider, team etc. I can't even separate Fabio from Yamaha or Marc from the 2019 Honda even when their team mates were miles behind. In my opinion, Fabio wouldn't be champion in 2021 without Yamaha no matter how good any other bike might or might not be. Put him on a Ducati, who knows ?...not I. It's as you say, the whole package deal. Maybe it is the way I see working as a team. The first person I check, double check, triple check for fault is me. The last person I champion is me. I never did a good job but we have etc. So when I read somebody saying, 'I did a good job', I always feel that is something for others to judge. I'd always feel more at ease hearing, 'we did a good job'. Hmmm, might just be my issues haha.
In reply to Exactly, not different by WaveyD1974
Maybe you and Alex Rins aren’t that far apart, my friend
Here’s what he tweeted to @Suzukimotogp after the race last Sunday (typos included):
‘We've crossed the finish line. To be honest, when they told us that this would be our last race Icried a lot. Not only because I think it was OUR YEAR, but because Suzuki has been a family forme since joining the team in 2017. Together we have built a winner bike, won epic races andfought for championships. But we had our lows
too. From scary injuries to disappointing results. We've had arguments, but we have discussed,solved things, and grown. Even when we weren't scoring points, when we didn't qualify well or theday they told us we were out of theChampionship, we didn't give up. We always gave everything that we got, individually and as a team.
it requires a lot of confidence in your team and a lot of focus from everybody that it is involved to race at 350 km/h, and my team always performed at the highest level until the very last lap. Today proves that. I hope that future brings us the best. For those that will keep working at MotoGP, I'm looking forward to see you next year. For those that won't be at the paddock, I hope that you start a new chapter of your life that makes you as happy as you deserve to be.
Thank you for all these years. With love, the blue team rider’.
Suzukimotogp replied- ‘Thanks for this beautiful letter., blue team rider. simply put: we love you and we’re so proud of all our achievements with you. Your next team is very lucky to have you.
Seems you and Alex have much in common when it comes to teamwork. I think and hope I have too. Go well.
I'll miss Suzuki too, but...
David has delivered another great wrap up to the season, as always.
I know Suzuki's departure has disappointed many, and even broken few hearts. I'll miss them too, but Suzuki was always fools gold... we just didn't know it until they pulled the plug. Some motorcycle (and automotive) manufacturers have a passion for racing that goes all the way to top management, to the board room. But others don't, and when these do race - for PR and marketing purposes - the commitment tends to be transitory. Suzuki is one of these. BMW is another, both bikes and cars. Toyota also, and others.
Suzuki has proved their (lack of) passion before. We as fans who love the sport should learn our lesson. My allegiance is much safer when devoted to a manufacturer that is infused with a passion for racing... not just at the race department level, but throughout the company. Just my opinion.