MotoMatters.com | Kropotkin Thinks

So the final test of the 2023 preseason has finished. In reality, of course, testing finished on Saturday – Sunday was the first day of practice for the first round of the 2023 MotoGP season at Portimão. It's just that there are eleven days between the eight-hour FP1 session we just had and the 45 minute session officially titled FP1 on Friday March 24th.

That is an exaggeration, but only a slight one. There were a few things being tested – mostly factories finalizing aerodynamics, as well as the odd experiment – but for the most part, the teams were using the day to prepare for the first race of the season in just under two weeks time. Almost everyone did a sprint race simulation, and pretty much everyone tried to set a fast time. So the timesheets may not tell us everything, but they are actually meaningful, at last.

But first, about those experiments. Yamaha finally rolled out the F1-style rear wing on the tail of Fabio Quartararo's Yamaha M1, much to the revulsion of a sizable part of the fan base on social media. (Though notably, a younger section of fans were in favor of such innovation.)

As revolutionary as it might appear, the good news for those that hate the idea is that the wing made no difference, and so is likely to be abandoned. "You don't really feel it," Quartararo said. "I mean, it's not worse or better, but I don't think we're going to use it."

The wing was as popular with the people inside the Yamaha box as it was with a large number of those outside. "My mechanics say I hope that it's not working. Sorry for you, but I hope it's not working!" Quartararo laughed.

Is it legal? It is, because it sits behind the rider. Like the stegosaurus fins on the tail of the Ducati and Honda, anything on the tail of the bike (in the wind shadow of the rider) is not part of the aero package, and factories are free to do whatever they want. Which in this case is to build a wing that didn't make any material difference.

But back to the season prep. More detailed analysis will follow soon, but here are some initial thoughts on the state of each factory after preseason testing.

Ducati

If the preseason of 2022 was a disaster, with testing going on into the first race at Qatar, Ducati's 2023 preseason is the exact opposite. A carefully planned testing schedule shared among the Pramac and factory Ducati Lenovo teams, along with an approach that was much more about evolution than revolution.

As things stand on the day that testing ended, it is hard to fault that approach. The engine of the GP23 is a big step forward, not in peak horsepower but in power delivery, the engine delivering its 300+ horses with a creamy smoothness. The bike is so easy to ride, is the universal assessment.

But don't believe me, just look at the results: seven of the top eight times were set by Ducati riders, the only exception being permanent test rider Michele Pirro (who was busy doing strange experiments with handlebar position and leaving the pits with the ride-height device down to do a complete lap with the device in its lowered position) and Fabio Di Giannantonio, who was ruled unfit after a massive crash on Saturday had left him with a concussion.

While the Ducatis stand head and shoulders ahead of everyone else, there is one among them who is clearly king of the hill. Appropriately, that is the rider with the #1 plate on his Desmosedici. Pecco Bagnaia is oozing with confidence and radiating serenity, and as a result, terrifying his rivals. Fabio

Quartararo was busy doing his media debrief while Bagnaia was out on track doing his final fast run, praising the Italian's fast lap at the time, a 1'38.154. As he spoke, Bagnaia knocked out an astonishing lap, becoming the first rider to ever lap the Portimão circuit under 1'38, with a time of 1'37.968. The journalists fell silent, and Quartararo let slip an admiring expletive.

So Bagnaia starts the season as favorite, and rightly so. His race simulations were exceptional, and he is riding incredibly well. "He's riding pretty impressive," former teammate Jack Miller said of him. "I followed him for a very short time, followed him through that last corner, and that's a guy that has a lot of confidence in his motorcycle, for sure."

Enea Bastianini made a big step forward after a difficult day on Saturday, and was not far off. Jorge Martin is riding well and fast, and Johann Zarco found a big dollop of speed to take second place. But the name on everyone's lips is Alex Marquez, with multiple riders singling him out for praise.

I spent the morning walking around the service road, watching the riders pass from as many points as possible. And Alex Marquez radiated a sense of joy in his riding, the kind of euphoria that any rider will recognize from those perfect days riding great roads in superb weather.

He was even happy about the two crashes he had, because he finally understood that the Ducati actually did have a limit. "It's also something positive because, you know, until that point I was feeling on the bike that everything was possible - and no, there is a limit! It’s something that you need to understand," he told us.

It has taken Gigi Dall'Igna and Ducati a long time to get here, but right now, the Desmosedici is the best bike on the grid. And Pecco Bagnaia is looking like the best rider on the grid at the moment as well.

Yamaha

Yamaha is a tale of two riders, and a game of two halves. Fabio Quartararo dropped the 2023 aerodynamic package in favor of last year's package, used last year's settings (or possibly older), and immediately found all of the speed that he had been missing on Saturday and more. He ended the day just behind Johann Zarco, and up until Bagnaia's last run, a tenth behind the 2022 MotoGP champion, and was finally confident of being able to compete.

"So a massive step today," the Frenchman said. "Basically we have been a little bit with last year's aero package, some old set up on the bike. And it was working and we could see a little bit where the problem was and… really good. I feel like one with the bike. Still missing a few things on the feeling. But I mean, I've never made 1'38.3 in this track. So I think it's pretty good."

It is unclear why the 2023 aerodynamics package was dropped in favor of the '22 package, with some reports that the new aero wouldn't fit inside the jig used by Technical Director Danny Aldridge to assess whether the aero is legal. Whatever the reason, it was the right choice, with Quartararo clearly faster and happier with the old aero and old settings.

With the more powerful 2023 engine in a chassis which is very close to the 2022 frame, 2022 aerodynamics, and settings from 2022 or even before, this is the bike that Quartararo should have had last year. It makes you wonder how differently the championship might have turned out if he did.

If things took a positive turn for Fabio Quartararo, Franco Morbidelli remains mired in the swamp of his own lack of performance. The Italian has no explanation for why he is so much slower than his teammate. But the fact remains that he is, and he has yet to find a way of remedying that situation.

Aprilia

From trackside, the Aprilia looks the best bike on the grid. It is smooth, barely moves, and is a rocketship off the line. But it is still a little step behind the Ducati, despite looking better when viewed from the outside.

The Aprilia riders couldn't make the step that the Ducatis did, which is how they ended up tenth, eleventh, and twelfth, with Miguel Oliveira sandwiched in between Maverick Viñales and Aleix Espargaro.

Espargaro was happy with the bike, but less happy with his physical shape. The factory Aprilia rider could only manage 52 laps as a result of problems with his arms. It turned out not to be arm pump, as he feared on Saturday, but fibrosis, the accumulation of scar tissue in his arm where he had previously had a fasciotomy, surgery to remedy arm pump. Espargaro is scheduled to have surgery again on Monday morning in Barcelona to remove the scar tissue and clean up his arm, in the hope of being fit for the start of the season.

Miguel Oliveira was met with cheers every time he entered or left the pits from the smattering of fans who littered the grandstands. The Portuguese fans have high hopes for the RNF Aprilia rider, and they have good reason for doing so. "If the race is tomorrow, or the weekend starts right now I think we’re in the good place to perform," he told us on Sunday. "From today I think we had a decent top five pace."

KTM

There was a sense of optimism on Sunday after what had been difficult Saturday for the KTM and GasGas riders. Despite a massive crash near the end of the day, Brad Binder was happy with the progress made, ending the day in ninth, six tenths behind Pecco Bagnaia and three tenths slower than second-place Ducati Johann Zarco.

"I think we made a good step forward today. I got a lot more understanding of how we can improve, and it gave us an area for the guys to go home and work on to really touch our problems," the South African said.

His Australian Red Bull KTM teammate was equally pleased, with his own progress at least. He had improved his best time by a big chunk, and made positive steps forward with electronics. "We managed to drop another second today," Miller said. "The problem is, the other boys are now nearly eight tenths under the lap record. I thought, couple of tenths to the lap record, that's not too bad, looking at the screen."

The positive side for Binder was that he had been able to put in a fast lap, something which the KTM riders had struggled with last year. The problem for KTM is that they are still lacking rear grip, however, despite having made a very small improvement on Sunday. That was not something that could be fixed with setup, though, Binder insisted. It needed new hardware to remedy it.

Honda

If you are HRC, your glass is either half full or half empty, depending on how you look at it. On the positive side, Joan Mir, Marc Marquez, and Alex Rins were all very close together in the standings, the three of them separated by just two hundredths of a second.

The bad news, though, is that they are still a long way from being truly competitive. "Now for Portimão, we cannot think about the podium and we cannot think about victory," Marquez said. "We need to think about what we have, try to take the best and we will see. We will see, but if tomorrow is the race with those conditions on the track we can fight from fifth to tenth I think."

Those are not the positions Marquez signed up for, of course. But there was no point in getting angry, he insisted. "It's true that we need to do a step. We need to keep improving, but you cannot start the season with the negative mentality. I mean you need to start with positive mentality. Try to find the best and if you need to fight for the top five, try to fight for the top five. If you need to fight for the top ten, try to fight for the top ten. This will be the key of the season. If you start the season with negative mentality, it will be a very long season with 42 races."

Joan Mir's biggest problem at the moment is adapting to the way the Honda RC213V makes its power. The aggressive power delivery and throttle response is very different to the Suzuki he has been riding for the past four seasons, and changing his understanding of what happens when he opens the throttle will take some time.

Alex Rins appears to have taken to the Honda like a duck to water, perhaps because he was expecting the bike to be a lot worse. It was more physically demanding than the Suzuki, but it was still easier than he had feared. "Before trying the bike I thought this Honda was more physical. I expected more than what it is."

With testing done, the teams had back to their workshops, the engineers back to their respective factories, to absorb and analyze the data collected. The next time they gather in Portimão, it is for real. The season is so very nearly upon us.