MotoMatters.com | Kropotkin Thinks

It has been a long and eventful weekend, and there will be much to write about this coming week. Including an interview with Lin Jarvis, talking about the decision to sign Alex Rins instead of Franco Morbidelli, what Yamaha is doing to address their problems, and what type of concessions would really make a difference for Yamaha and Honda.

But first, some initial thoughts after a fantastic day of racing, across all three classes. It made a nonsense of British national broadcaster ITV's decision not to show the MotoGP race live, preferring to broadcast a meaningless soccer game. That was bad for ITV, but also bad for MotoGP. Silverstone is one of the tracks that produces fantastic racing, which needs to be seen by as wide an audience as possible. Today's race was the kind of race that will bring in new fans if casual TV viewers get to see it.

With only one factory seat up for grabs in 2024, MotoGP's Silly Season – the frantic period in which riders, teams, and managers haggle over contracts and rides – has been relatively quiet so far. But all that changed on Sunday night at Mugello, after Franco Morbidelli dropped a quiet bombshell to Dorna's cameras. "Do I want to secure another year with Yamaha?" the Monster Energy Yamaha rider responded to a question from Jack Appleyard about beating his teammate, answering the follow up question with an enigmatic "Ask Lin," referring to Lin Jarvis, Managing Director of Yamaha Motor Racing.

Morbidelli's answer both kicked off a round of speculation, as well as highlighting the scale of the problem facing Yamaha. We had all assumed that Morbidelli would want to hang on to a factory seat, to have direct input into the bike he will be racing. But it appears that the appeal of a factory seat at Yamaha is declining. Not quite as fast as at Honda, perhaps, but still declining.

So where are we in the process of finding riders for seats in 2023? Here's what we know based on rumor, gossip, speculation, and insider information.

Departure imminent?

Yesterday, I wrote about the stupendous crowds at Le Mans for the 1000th motorcycle grand prix. The circuit and event were the right place to celebrate such a memorable occasion. But the fans who packed the circuit at Le Mans got their money's worth in terms of racing too. The MotoGP race was spectacular and tense in equal measure.

It was also a very messy affair. Of the 21 riders who lined up at 2pm on Sunday – Raul Fernandez had tried to ride after arm pump surgery, but that had proved impossible – only 13 made it to the checkered flag. It was a war of attrition.

Why all the crashes? A lot of reasons. There's a lot of hard braking at Le Mans, and more right than left corners. Temperatures can be relatively cool, and tires can cool off quickly. And riders found themselves caught between choosing a softer front tire and suffering in braking, and going for the medium or hard front and nursing the left side of the tire through Musée and Chemin aux Boeufs.

What did we learn from the Grand Prix of Argentina from Termas de Rio Hondo? First and foremost, we learned not to trust weather forecasts. It was supposed to rain on Friday, and it turned out fine. It was supposed to be fine on Saturday and Sunday, and there were patches of rain on Saturday and a downpour on Sunday.

We also learned that grip levels change everything. In the dry and in the wet, as grip changes, so do the relative strengths and weaknesses of the bikes and riders. We saw that most clearly in the Yamaha garage, where Franco Morbidelli was suddenly outperforming Fabio Quartararo through practice, qualifying, and the sprint race, mainly because Morbidelli gets faster as grip drops off, and there was very little grip available at Termas.

And we saw Marco Bezzecchi fulfill the potential we all believed he had, dominating the feature race on Sunday after getting tangled up on Saturday, and having to settle for a podium.

Two Saturdays, two sprint races, and five riders down. MotoGP's sprint races continue their trend of being thrilling and terrifying in equal measure. They produce compelling racing, but the riders are constantly skirting disaster.

And sometimes failing to skirt it: Joan Mir crashed on the first lap, and was taken to hospital for scans on his ankle. MotoGP medical expert Dr Charte told Spanish broadcaster DAZN that Mir had suffered a concussion, and so could miss the grand prix on Sunday. He is due to be evaluated again on Sunday morning, but if he does miss the race, that would bring the grid down to 17. Very threadbare indeed.

Still, there is no argument that the sprint races are exciting. Even the riders think so, though their attitude to the excitement varies with their appetite for risk. And their willingness to fight, and to defend aggressively.

Cutthroat business

If Friday was the warm up for the new schedule, Saturday was when it hit home hardest. The familiar pattern – FP3 in the morning, including a mad dash for a spot in Q2 in the final 15 minutes, then FP4 in the early afternoon followed immediately by qualifying – was gone. In its place, a lot of confused journalists (well, at least one, myself), suddenly confused by the fact that it was not yet 11am and MotoGP was already starting Q1.

Moto2 and Moto3 had a more normal pattern – they kicked off a little earlier in the morning, and qualifying was a little later in the afternoon than last year – but after qualifying for the Moto2 class, it was time for the first ever MotoGP sprint race. That turned into a genuine barn burner, in both senses of the phrase. It was exciting. It was something new. And it was really rather scary.

The day held a lot of surprises. Lap records tumbled in all three classes: by just under a tenth of a second in Moto2, half a second in Moto3, and by a whopping 1.5 seconds in MotoGP. Bikes and riders we had written off stunned the fans. Riders we had hyped up disappeared were utterly faceless. There is no substitute for racing to uncover the reality.

Writing MotoGP season previews used to be a relatively simple affair: discuss the four or five riders who had a realistic chance of winning the championship, compare the strengths and weaknesses of the Yamaha vs the Honda, and ask whether Ducati have done enough this year to catch up. A few notes on the remainder of the grid, and you were done.

Previewing the 2023 MotoGP season is potentially a much more time-consuming affair. All 22 riders on the 2023 grid have grand prix victories to their name in one class or another. All five MotoGP factories had bikes on the podium last year, and only Honda didn't score a win. There are 13 world champions lining up in MotoGP in 2023. To say the grid is stacked with talent is an understatement.

Potential champions this year? Obviously Pecco Bagnaia has a good chance of defending. But Yamaha have given Fabio Quartararo the extra speed he was missing to be able to challenge. Enea Bastianini could well surprise and upset his factory Ducati teammate. Aprilia have refined the RS-GP to a point where Aleix Espargaro is a serious candidate, and there is no doubting the talent of his teammate Maverick Viñales either. Jorge Martin has a better bike and a point to prove, and sprint races will play right into his hands. Miguel Oliveira is very much in the same boat. And it would be foolish to write Marc Marquez off, whatever the state of the Honda at the moment.