MotoMatters.com | Kropotkin Thinks

Sometimes after a race, I feel like there is a lot to write about. This is not one of those days, because it was not one of those races. In previous years, the Red Bull Ring has always delivered when it came to racing. But with conditions as close to perfect as possible – the only complaint you could have is that it was perhaps a little too hot – the weather wildcard was taken from the pack, and the race turned into a measure of rider and machine. And as it's the Red Bull Ring, where the key to speed is braking and acceleration, mostly machine.

So the race we got is a pretty fair reflection of the current state of MotoGP. The strongest rider/bike/team package dominated. The second strongest rider-bike package finished second. And the best of the satellite riders headed up a gaggle of last year's Ducatis. The Aprilias, who should have done better, got bogged down at the start, the launch off the line still very much the RS-GP's kryptonite. And the Japanese bikes spent their race battling to get into the top ten.

I am not a fan of the Red Bull Ring at Spielberg. It is an overly simplistic circuit – a bunch of straights with an omega in the middle to prevent it from being a basic trapezoid layout, stuck up against a hillside. Because it is basically three long straights and an extended left hander, speeds reached are high, and there is very little runoff. Add in a couple of blind crests where riders have a tendency to crash – the exit of Turn 1, the exit of Turn 3 – and you have a recipe for disaster.

That recipe came terrifyingly close to completion at Turn 3 in 2020. Johann Zarco clipped the front wheel of Franco Morbidelli's Yamaha on the way up the hill toward Turn 3. The bikes were traveling at such a speed that both Zarco's Ducati and Morbidelli's M1 shot across the track at Turn 3, Morbidelli's bike passing in between the Yamahas of Maverick Viñales and Valentino Rossi, Zarco's Ducati flying just over the head of Maverick Viñales.

It has been a long and eventful weekend, and there will be much to write about this coming week. Including an interview with Lin Jarvis, talking about the decision to sign Alex Rins instead of Franco Morbidelli, what Yamaha is doing to address their problems, and what type of concessions would really make a difference for Yamaha and Honda.

But first, some initial thoughts after a fantastic day of racing, across all three classes. It made a nonsense of British national broadcaster ITV's decision not to show the MotoGP race live, preferring to broadcast a meaningless soccer game. That was bad for ITV, but also bad for MotoGP. Silverstone is one of the tracks that produces fantastic racing, which needs to be seen by as wide an audience as possible. Today's race was the kind of race that will bring in new fans if casual TV viewers get to see it.

With only one factory seat up for grabs in 2024, MotoGP's Silly Season – the frantic period in which riders, teams, and managers haggle over contracts and rides – has been relatively quiet so far. But all that changed on Sunday night at Mugello, after Franco Morbidelli dropped a quiet bombshell to Dorna's cameras. "Do I want to secure another year with Yamaha?" the Monster Energy Yamaha rider responded to a question from Jack Appleyard about beating his teammate, answering the follow up question with an enigmatic "Ask Lin," referring to Lin Jarvis, Managing Director of Yamaha Motor Racing.

Morbidelli's answer both kicked off a round of speculation, as well as highlighting the scale of the problem facing Yamaha. We had all assumed that Morbidelli would want to hang on to a factory seat, to have direct input into the bike he will be racing. But it appears that the appeal of a factory seat at Yamaha is declining. Not quite as fast as at Honda, perhaps, but still declining.

So where are we in the process of finding riders for seats in 2023? Here's what we know based on rumor, gossip, speculation, and insider information.

Departure imminent?

With three races on three consecutive weekends, MotoGP writers such as myself don't get much time to mull over events. As soon as one MotoGP round finishes, we are already looking ahead to the next. So the Sunday subscriber notes will be necessarily brief, though I hope to add a few more observations in the next day or so.

But a weekend like Mugello cannot pass without mention. In the end, it turned out to be a glorious Sunday, the sun blazing down and igniting the crowds, which were larger than we had expected and feared. The sun also meant track temperatures were higher than Saturday, when clouds had spared the asphalt the scorching Tuscan sun. That meant data collected from Saturday's sprint race was suddenly less useful than hoped for, confounding tire choice and forcing teams to choose between playing it safe with the medium, and risking the soft, which worked better for many riders. Like all gambles, it paid off for some, and not for others.

What did we learn from the Grand Prix of Argentina from Termas de Rio Hondo? First and foremost, we learned not to trust weather forecasts. It was supposed to rain on Friday, and it turned out fine. It was supposed to be fine on Saturday and Sunday, and there were patches of rain on Saturday and a downpour on Sunday.

We also learned that grip levels change everything. In the dry and in the wet, as grip changes, so do the relative strengths and weaknesses of the bikes and riders. We saw that most clearly in the Yamaha garage, where Franco Morbidelli was suddenly outperforming Fabio Quartararo through practice, qualifying, and the sprint race, mainly because Morbidelli gets faster as grip drops off, and there was very little grip available at Termas.

And we saw Marco Bezzecchi fulfill the potential we all believed he had, dominating the feature race on Sunday after getting tangled up on Saturday, and having to settle for a podium.

Writing MotoGP season previews used to be a relatively simple affair: discuss the four or five riders who had a realistic chance of winning the championship, compare the strengths and weaknesses of the Yamaha vs the Honda, and ask whether Ducati have done enough this year to catch up. A few notes on the remainder of the grid, and you were done.

Previewing the 2023 MotoGP season is potentially a much more time-consuming affair. All 22 riders on the 2023 grid have grand prix victories to their name in one class or another. All five MotoGP factories had bikes on the podium last year, and only Honda didn't score a win. There are 13 world champions lining up in MotoGP in 2023. To say the grid is stacked with talent is an understatement.

Potential champions this year? Obviously Pecco Bagnaia has a good chance of defending. But Yamaha have given Fabio Quartararo the extra speed he was missing to be able to challenge. Enea Bastianini could well surprise and upset his factory Ducati teammate. Aprilia have refined the RS-GP to a point where Aleix Espargaro is a serious candidate, and there is no doubting the talent of his teammate Maverick Viñales either. Jorge Martin has a better bike and a point to prove, and sprint races will play right into his hands. Miguel Oliveira is very much in the same boat. And it would be foolish to write Marc Marquez off, whatever the state of the Honda at the moment.