Submitted by Zara Daniela on
| Pos | No. | Rider | Bike | Points | Deficit |
| 1 | 63 | Francesco Bagnaia | Ducati | 258 | |
| 2 | 20 | Fabio Quartararo | Yamaha | 235 | -23 |
| 3 | 41 | Aleix Espargaro | Aprilia | 212 | -46 |
| 4 | 23 | Enea Bastianini | Ducati | 211 | -47 |
| 5 | 43 | Jack Miller | Ducati | 189 | -69 |
| 6 | 33 | Brad Binder | KTM | 168 | -90 |
| 7 | 5 | Johann Zarco | Ducati | 166 | -92 |
| 8 | 42 | Alex Rins | Suzuki | 148 | -110 |
| 9 | 88 | Miguel Oliveira | KTM | 138 | -120 |
| 10 | 89 | Jorge Martin | Ducati | 136 | -122 |
| 11 | 12 | Maverick Viñales | Aprilia | 122 | -136 |
| 12 | 93 | Marc Marquez | Honda | 113 | -145 |
| 13 | 10 | Luca Marini | Ducati | 111 | -147 |
| 14 | 72 | Marco Bezzecchi | Ducati | 106 | -152 |
| 15 | 36 | Joan Mir | Suzuki | 77 | -181 |
| 16 | 44 | Pol Espargaro | Honda | 56 | -202 |
| 17 | 73 | Alex Marquez | Honda | 50 | -208 |
| 18 | 30 | Takaaki Nakagami | Honda | 46 | -212 |
| 19 | 21 | Franco Morbidelli | Yamaha | 36 | -222 |
| 20 | 49 | Fabio Di Giannantonio | Ducati | 23 | -235 |
| 21 | 4 | Andrea Dovizioso | Yamaha | 15 | -243 |
| 22 | 40 | Darryn Binder | Yamaha | 12 | -246 |
| 23 | 87 | Remy Gardner | KTM | 10 | -248 |
| 24 | 35 | Cal Crutchlow | Yamaha | 10 | -248 |
| 25 | 25 | Raul Fernandez | KTM | 10 | -248 |
| 26 | 6 | Stefan Bradl | Honda | 2 | -256 |
| 27 | 51 | Michele Pirro | Ducati | 0 | -258 |
| 28 | 32 | Lorenzo Savadori | Aprilia | 0 | -258 |
| 29 | 45 | Tetsuta Nagashima | Honda | 0 | -258 |
| 30 | 9 | Danilo Petrucci | Suzuki | 0 | -258 |
| 31 | 92 | Kazuki Watanabe | Suzuki | 0 | -258 |
Round Number:
19
Year:
2022
Comments
And our standings...
For next year...
Shall we agree on a top 3 plus top independent, 'shrink what do you say?
Much trickier to predict a top 3, who would you field? 2 from team red, Quartararo, Marc, Aleix/Mav, Rins, top independent?
Three will require some real tough choices to be made...
HELP - request for 2023 thoughts
^ Great idea on top Independent! If no repeats and such a large # of people it is likely to make more people happy to do Top 5 plus one Independent. Top 3 may run out of preferable/good options after a dozen participants, penalizing the others?
^ Group input --> decision by "Race Direction"
Anyone want to be a third with us so we can vote efficiently? Anyone have a recommendation? Cloverleaf, D999, Ivanhoe, spongedaddy, St Stephen, WaveyD1974, Freddie Spencer?
:)
Case in point from last yr, look at our current #1 and #2 front runners. Multiple people discussed how to best account for Riesjart having order better, but KN58 has the points over him.
Apical and SP_won both have the Top 2 correct! Back battling for 9th. Powervalve picked Asparagus! What do you three think?
Should we try...
(It is always a compromise, and it isnt easy to do via spreadsheet is it?). Add a "correct position bonus?" Descending in value from 1st thru 5th? As a % of the rider's points? That sounds like your final decision Ivanhoe the "Timing and Scoring manager."
Where is JINX when we need a good thought? Where the heck did you go?! Hope you're doing well, you're missed. Hell, BrickTop too...a few others over the years. Don't leave me and WaveyD here over-posting like annoying 13 year old girls on social media.
;)
REWATCHING THE RACE oh my. And I'm going to try not to post a single thing about it for a change, there are shop projects getting dusty...
The original idea was just a
The original idea was just a prediction of the championship podium for fun. The more complex it gets the more it becomes a chore to some degree. I think from the original idea the only need to keep any score is to add some measure of how useless our predictions are.
I think no matter how we tried to adjust the scoring to reflect the 'correct ordering' of riders within a chosen group, it would create as many 'problems' as it solved. I think it is a question of where is the value in the predictions. Reward that value and then an imperfect system would decide who was champion....very much like the real championship. If it's order then reward the ordering and use total points for a tie. If it's points then use points and ordering for a tie.
KISS
I agree, keep it simple. The interesting this year, to me at least, has been the rookie results. Most of us thought Raul or Remy would take the lead. Aside from the KTM (bike and team) not really helping them achieve results, not many of us predicted Bezecchi’s success. So I think rookie, rather than independent, should stay in the mix and it will separate the true wizards from the rest of us. Or are there no rookies for 2023?
So far, Fernandez is the only
So far, Fernandez is the only rookie entering Motogp in '23. Unless Toprak...
I think top independent is a good addition. The number of veteran riders? I don't know, how about four? This season, I believe tied scores are broken by the accuracy of the order of the picks. That sounds fine by me.
Good to see you back, Ivanhoe. Thanks for updating the spreadsheet.
Not fussed
About how it runs in future. I don’t have anything helpful to add, I’m just grateful to the folks here who make it happen.
Happy to be in the top ten.
Dusty 'shrink? missing Jinx
Not as dusty as SBK at San Juan Villicum. Weird crashes off line due to no grip.
Eighth place for me, wow man! I'm in the top ten(ish). SP-won has the order more correct. I should be ninth or so.
Number 9 number 9 Danilo Petrucci 9.
Our current format seems to be working ok. Maybe; Top 5 plus top independent team rider plus best Rookie?
Where is Jinx? A good MotoBrain and plenty of engineering insight as well. Jinx is in the USA, can someone check he is ok? We have heard nothing since this "Cemeteries are full of indispensable men" and a comment more like a novella. It has been a year & nine months. Maybe Jinx is on a submarine? When will Jinx surface? I need some Jinx humour.
https://motomatters.com/news/2021/01/07/davide_brivio_leaves_suzuki_for_...
Sorry about the mention of Formula Yawn.
I really thought MM would
I really thought MM would pull one out of the hat and send my skyrocketing up the order. Not so much.
Drop rookies if only one.
Drop rookies if only one.
That makes sense.
If Toprak doesn't step over,
If Toprak doesn't step over, maybe we should include a top rookie pick for next year. It would finally give us something we could all agree on. Then later, we could discuss Malaysia 2015 again. Just to keep things spicy. Resume the Bitci and Skratchy discussions.
Thanks for the chuckle ‘daddy
Needed that!
Did you watch the moto3 race
Did you watch the moto3 race yesterday? A really good one. McPhee sitting on the ground in Parc ferme. Put a towel over his head and sobbed a few times. Outpouring of emotion from such a frustrating season. Then he composed himself, stood up, and shared joy with his teammates. Including his crew chief. The guy from the video from three years ago abusing a rider.
McPhee's first career podium is worth another watch too:
https://www.motogp.com/en/videos/2015/08/09/indygp-moto3-full-race/181254
^ I am inclined to Top 5 plus
^ I am inclined to Top 5 plus Independent given the above.
Ivanhoe, up to you if you want to add a bonus for position correct - feel free (if easy on spreadsheet it sounds fun, I'm just appreciative you are doing Scoring!).
Rule clarification, CAN have Top Independent be a repeat of someone in your Top 5.
2023 Top 5 starts right after Valencia. Be sure to sign up early because no repeats are allowed. (I can get it started again and hand the list off Weds before Qatar).
...Already picked mine, messing w order. See you at the Circuit de Kart November 4th.
Riesjart, you can do it - GO BASTIANINI!
:)
Cheers!
^ Me too, Top 5 plus Independent
^ you’ve had a very good discussion - apologies for the late arrival on the scene - and it seems from the points made, as ‘shrink suggests, that it’s worth running with the current approach for another year, substituting Independent for Rookie. I did consider raising the question of replacement riders, having felt sympathy towards colleagues who lost a rider through in-season injury or retirement (as in the case of Rins or Mir or Dovi). And even more sympathy towards those who selected what should have been an excellent team but were unaccountably let down by the underperformance of one of their riders (Morbidelli, for example, or Remi - whose disappointing performances effectively ruined the chances of several otherwise strong contenders - some with potential for #1. And finally, the thought occurred of limiting the number of bikes of one make that can be selected (for no doubt obvious reasons). But on balance I tend to think it’s better to leave things as they are and let pickers weigh chances of injury and underperformance when choosing their teams. On ‘shrink’s question of whether Top Independent can ‘be a repeat of someone in your Top 5’, I’ve not made any picks myself yet, but in principle the answer seems to me to be a resounding ‘yes’.
While I’m on, once again many thanks to the redoubtable Ivanhoe - I hope things are going well with you, my friend. If it’s ok with you, I’ll be sending you a racing shirt at the end of the season as a small thank you for your contribution (I’ll be in touch about that separately and in due course also with the new holder of #1 plate). This is in no way connected with your keeping me for much of the season in sight of a 3rd place finish. That prospect is swiftly diminishing now sadly - it’s just as well then that there isn’t a massive Ducati style bonus for third or I’d be feeling less cheery at the prospect of slipping down the table. If nothing else, I’m hopeful of finishing ahead of ‘shrink ;)
One round to go. Good luck everyone, I hope you enjoy every moment of the race, it’s going to be a long dark closed season.
^ Thanks a bunch, huge help
^ Thanks a bunch, huge help Cloverleaf.
Winning 2021, and way up front 2022? ...better watch the inside line because I'm hoping to 2021 Mir your Miller with a paint swap. Already seeing you as the person to beat next season.
KN58 are you here? I cheering for Bastianini and Riesjart in Spain!
Honoured
and thanks for your support. Another contest down to the wire 😂
^ You’re welcome, ‘Shrink
Thanks for the kind words, I’ve ridden my luck and certainly had fun this year, especially over our pretend enmity, but while I’ll have a shot I’ve no great hopes of tipping success next year. It seems to me that bikes and riders, already closely matched, will be even better matched and more difficult to separate next year, especially with the additional sprint races. Way beyond my knowledge and skill set to figure out. But not yours, my friend, and unless luck comes to my aid for a third year, you’ll leave me in the dust. As will many others. I’m hoping for a bumper entry to the Top 5 and Independent stakes 2023 and some quality Motomuttering, but not for laurels.
How do I join the challenge!
I’d love to join after Valencia - how does one participate? Do I send my picks to someone or post them here (and if so, what does ‘after Valencia’ mean time-wise?). Thanks! I’m new here and have enjoyed the comments and watching the scoring of the contest for this season. Great fun!
On these articles...
^ Pease do. It starts again under the ARTICLE LIKE THIS ONE (Season Points Tally) comments section. Monday or Tues after Valencia at latest. Then over Winter, it pops up here and there under articles that vaguely fit (ie "2022 Preview" or "Winter Test #1 final results)"
Motoshrink updates a list ON HERE, and you POST A COMMENT under it WITH YOUR PICKS to get added.
Good luck. Enjoy the off-season discussion around it, as well as the added awareness it gives you of various things (wow, you really thought Gardner was going to do well with KTM vs Bezzecchi on that Duc? I really thought Marc was coming back quicker to win it on the revolution Honda - we need to update our thinking!). And, connect with the community hive mind and banter. There have been side bets and things sent across the World...super fun.
(As per usual, thanks for skipping/skimming if "not for me," sometimes it isn't even my cup of tea. Selective awareness, flexible focus. I'm decreasing my posting blather believe it or not as well as always skipping a full third of everything on here).
Looking fwd to your picks and comments.
Thank you very much!
I appreciate the information and look forward to the off season discussions and banter! It's been interesting watching the scoring this season (I came to Motomatters as a subscriber about a quarter of the way into the season). I thought I was reasonably knowledgable about MotoGP until I started reading the comments here - wow, how much I have learned! (Mostly I learned that I didn't really know all that much after all....LOL). Will be great to read and chat until the 2023 championship gets underway. Thanks to all (especially David E!) for making this such a terrific forum. Great group!
Thanks a lot
This is the first season I joined the predictions and it certainly added some spice to the races. Thanks everyone who made it happen (Ivanhoe, 'Shrink). First races I thought I'd be nowhere....can I still overtske KN58? 😃
Last to comment!
...which is pretty appropriate since I'm just about last in the standings, near to my fellow Dovi sympathizer Poole Pirate.
In these kinds of calculations it's either simple but not always precise or fair, or complex, which is too much work and the players often don't even know how the winner was determined. So...I agree with the group that we should do top 5 and top independent. My only hope has been some kind of extra credit for actually picking the champion, since the way it stands now it's the top 5 in any order. But I am of course happy to go along with the group decision.
Have been on the road, watching races on the laptop, only saw the first WSBK race late last night. Finally, thanks to Ivanhoe, Clover and 'Shrink!
Scoring = Ivanhoe. :)
^ Thanks St Steve! We have our plan then.
Looks like it is over to you Ivanhoe. Whatever you want to do on modifying or not the scoring feel free. Zero hurry, we have until Qatar.
And THANK YOU so much, Spongedaddy too!
:)
Thank you too, Motoshrink,
Thank you too, Motoshrink, and everyone else.
Top five and top independent sounds great.
Well that’s settled then
Top five and top independent it is.
Predicting the order right should have an impact beyond just picking the best five, let’s see what the spreadsheet can do.
Something like a differential multiplier should be doable. As in 25 for the #1, 20 for #2, 16 for #3, divided by the differential.
Example: guess 1 and 2 right, then 3-4-5 as 5-4-3.
1 right = 25
2 right = 20
3 as 5 = 16/2 = 8
4 right = 13
5 as 3 = 11/2 = 5.5
total 69.5 as the multiplier of your total score
Guessing them all right in the right order yields 25+20+16+13+11=85
Or if you find this too complicated, just the top three? With the amount of similar choices this year, a #1 may not give a significant distinction.
If multiplier is too much, then how about the differential (times some multiplier) added to your total?
Anyone still reading? 😂😂😂
Something shadowy began
Something shadowy began fogging over my mind after "Example:"
You're joking right, ivanhoe? Discerning between one's seriousness versus humor can be difficult at times through the written word. Easier through natural human contact.
If you are serious, wouldn't using correct order to determine same point total tiebreaks be simpler? i am all in for complicating matters and positions, be it motos or chess, but what about the rest (of us)?
Any other mutterers want to share their thoughts?
big smile from me!
big smile from me!
I'm laughing!
I'm laughing!
"Win Bonus = 10%!" :)
^ Super cool! If it is easy enough to execute, I think doing it would improve on things if "pitched" utterly simply. How much "bonus" is the trick.
My take is that it should be a small boost just to push the person forward (vs be a huge factor). And a % of points.
SIMPLEST as well as APPEALING AMOUNT? I'd say 10% of total points "Win Bonus" getting #1 right, 7% for #2, 5% for #3, 3.25% for #2 and 2% for #5.
I can pitch it well enough if it is going roughly to that plan above. What do you think? (I want my Win Bonus...just like a rider!).
"Written in your contract is the following (simple, small) Win Bonus!"
:)
Ivanhoe, you are a GEM mate.
+1
Thanks you for thinking this through Ivanhoe.
I am in agreement with 'Shrink's simple 10%. Or, even simpler, a point bonus at the end of the season for having picked the champion correctly.
This will again be a lot of fun (well, specifically much more fun for me if I get out of the relegation zone!) no matter how it is structured, so I am not very concerned no matter what is decided. But I do want to make it as easy as possible for you Ivanhoe.
That settles it
We can make that happen folks. ‘shrink, better start preparing those 2023 contracts mate, sounds like we have a few new joiners 😉.
But first… we have a championship to finish!
I'm laughing right now at the
I'm laughing right now at the lack of understanding and internal questions.
Hey, does anyone want to make a wager? Like five or ten bucks to enter with winner takes half and the other half goes to Motomatters.com?
^ That is a fun idea, I don't
^ That is a fun idea, I don't prefer to have $ involved but love prizes. There is a racing related shirt sent from last year's winner to this Season's winner going on (I will do it if they don't).
Great idea supporting the site.
Frankly speaking, I don't
Frankly speaking, I don't gamble for money and was hesitant to introduce the idea. It just popped into the mind last year and, what the heck, I decided to put it out there. Great idea with the shirt, Motoshrink. Really appreciate what you are doing here.
My son, Louis, is going to
My son, Louis, is going to create a Motomutterers Fantasy Picks website as a project for university (his idea). Will update mutterer's results automatically based on each race result from here or Motogp.com. So, ivanhoe, when you figure out the bonus rewards post it wherever. I read or skim all comments. Any changes to the system he can adapt. He's fired up and motivated.
Cheers everyone.
Kudos to you and your son, ‘daddy
‘Shrink’s idea works, no? It’s all a bit arbitrary but rewarding guessing order correctly deserves some form of bonus.
Was it:
#1 correct 10% bonus points
#2 correct 7%
#3 correct 4%
#4 correct 2%
#5 correct 1%
And it’s cumulative, so total max +24% bonus points
Something to that effect?
Read on at your own peril!
Applying the bonus per 2023 rules would yield something to this effect:
Now I really like the bonus
Now I really like the bonus idea!
When you put it like that..
It would have put me on the podium so three cheers for the bonus!
Thanks again for your efforts folks.
Bonuses sound cool, Ivanhoe
Bonuses sound cool, Ivanhoe (and Motoshrink). Why not try it and see what happens? It's all in good fun. What the specific percentage of each bonus should be is the arbitrary part to which I have nothing constructive to add. What is unclear is whether the bonus points are given after each race or solely at the end of the season. Either way is fine by us. Well, it's essentially Louis's project.
Cheers
"Win Bonus" = constant
"Win Bonus" = constant throughout year.
10% #1 right
7% #2
5% #3
3.25% #4
2% #5
(Essentially arbitrary yes, but carefully thought out both for effect ratio and congruent with similar realities for palatability/easy sell)
DryspongeJr, you should join us as a Mutterrer too eh? "Ivanhoe's Intern." Thanks folks.
:)
Another good one, Motoshrink.
Another good one, Motoshrink.
Thanks. :)
SpongeJr. does not share the interest in motor racing where competitors go "round and round in circles." But he has shared (or mirrored) the profound thoughts of searching for meaning in this world. Do you see an ego crisis as a prelude to an auspicious moment? The potential for deep understanding one could say. Or maybe it's a fool's errand and the actualized person is more in alignment with the divine plan. I would appreciate you helping me to understand this Motoshrink...
Thank you. :)